The Golden Globes, aka the Oscars if everyone was drunk and being lectured about atheism by a British guy, kick off at 8:00 pm tonight. In anticipation, we dusted off our crystal balls and did our best to predict who will win. You can find predictions for the TV categories from New Republic editors Esther Breger and Alex Shephard below. Our film predictions are here. You can also follow our coverage of the Golden Globes live on Minutes.
Best TV Series, Drama:
- Empire
- Game of Thrones
- Mr. Robot
- Narcos
- Outlander
Esther’s pick: Mr. Robot. Empire would have been a shoo-in if these awards were given out six months go, but I doubt that even the Globes can ignore season two’s steep dive in quality. When it comes to TV, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves the zeitgeist, and nothing was more zeitgeist-y this summer than Sam Esmail’s cyber-thriller.
Alex’s pick: Game of Thrones. Playing it safe is boring. Season 6 of Game of Thrones was (often pretty) boring. But I’m convinced that all of my film predictions are wrong, so I’m going to play it safe here.
Best TV Series, Comedy/Musical:
- Casual
- Mozart in the Jungle
- Orange Is the New Black
- Silicon Valley
- Transparent
- Veep
Esther’s pick: Transparent. Transparent won last year, and usually the Globes like to go for a more WTF choice. But the show’s second season was even better—and more buzzworthy—than the first (even if it leaned more towards the drama side of the dramedy), so voters may deservedly make an exception.
Alex’s pick: Transparent. Silicon Valley and Veep are both coming off of incredible seasons. Silicon Valley will probably get its due, but I worry that Veep never will—its creator, Armando Ianucci, is done with the show. But none of these shows are on Transparent’s level. It won last year, but it will win again this year. I’m still playing it safe.
BEST TV MINISERIES OR MOVIE:
- American Crime
- American Horror Story: Hotel
- Fargo
- Flesh and Bone
- Wolf Hall
Esther’s pick: Fargo. None of us will be drunk enough for a Flesh and Bone win.
Alex’s pick: Fargo. The idea of Wolf Hall and the show about the hotel with the no eyes man is hilarious to me, but as good as Wolf Hall was—shout out to Mark Rylance—Fargo owned the Golden Globes last year and it was even better this year.
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
- Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
- Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
- Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
- Taraji P. Henson, Empire
- Robin Wright, House of Cards
Esther’s pick: Tajari P. Henson. Balfe and Green’s shows are too under-the-radar, and Davis and Wright are already widely celebrated for these roles. That leaves Henson to take home an award for her delicious performance as Cookie Lyon.
Alex’s pick: Tajari P. Henson. C’mon. Cookie’s got this.
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA:
- Jon Hamm, Mad Men
- Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
- Wagner Moura, Narcos
- Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
- Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Esther’s pick: Bob Odenkirk. This is a weird collection of nominees (I mean, Liev Schrieber? That dude from Narcos?) in a category that should surely belong to Jon Hamm. But Odenkirk is a familiar face in a breakout dramatic role, and that might be enough to sway voters.
Alex’s pick: Rami Malek. Jon Hamm seems like the safe bet and I can’t believe I’m not picking Odenkirk, who should have won 500 Golden Globes for bringing back Mr. Show, even if it was disappointing, but Malek gave the best, most memorable performance.
Best Actress, Comedy
- Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Scream Queens
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
- Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
- Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Esther’s pick: Rachel Bloom. Like Gina Rodriguez last year, Bloom is the charismatic lead of an offbeat, under-watched new show with an off-putting title. I’m rooting for her, if only because she might sing in her acceptance speech.
Alex’s pick: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Bloom should win and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend has quickly become my favorite new show, but Dreyfus has only won one Golden Globe and this is her year.
Best Actor, Comedy
- Aziz Ansari, Master of None
- Gael García Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
- Rob Lowe, The Grinder
- Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk
- Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Esther’s pick: Rob Lowe. Sure, Rob Lowe is nominated for a somewhat cheesy network sitcom. But the show is goofy and delightful, and he sells every line of it.
Alex’s pick: Aziz Ansari. It took me longer than I expected to get into Master of None, but Ansari’s performance ultimately won me over. I would have also picked Rob Lowe, but I keep mixing up The Grinder and Grandfathered.
Best Supporting Actress
- Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
- Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
- Regina King, American Crime
- Judith Light, Transparent
- Maura Tierney, The Affair
Esther’s pick: Uzo Aduba. I could see this going to Judith Light, but it’s hard to believe Aduba hasn’t won a Globe yet. Voters will want to fix that.
Alex’s pick: Regina King. Judging these five performances and shows against each other is pretty much impossible. Anyone could win except Maura Tierney, because Philip Roth cares what people think in The Affair.
Best Supporting Actor
- Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
- Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall
- Tobias Menzies, Outlander
- Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
- Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Esther’s pick: Christian Slater. Slater deserves this for finally managing to make it through a TV season without getting his show cancelled.
Alex’s pick: Ben Mendelsohn. Lewis should win and I legitimately looked forward to watching Christian Slater in a way I never thought I would, but Mendelsohn’s performance is Bloodline’s secret—the show wouldn’t work without it.
Best Actress, Mini-Series or TV Movie
- Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
- Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
- Sarah Hay, Flesh and Bone
- Felicity Huffman, American Crime
- Queen Latifah, Bessie
Esther’s pick: Kirsten Dunst. Dunst is a movie star who gave a genuinely great dramatic performance—though don’t you kind of want to hear Lady Gaga’s acceptance speech?
Alex’s pick: Kirsten Dunst. This was the performance I’d been waiting for her to give. She doesn’t have much competition here.
Best Actor, Mini-Series or TV Movie
- Idris Elba, Luther
- Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
- David Oyelowo, Nightingale
- Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
- Patrick Wilson, Fargo
Esther’s pick: Oscar Isaac. Patrick Wilson and Mark Rylance may have given better performances, but Oscar Isaac is the internet’s boyfriend.
Alex’s pick: Oscar Isaac. Rylance probably should win and Wilson probably will win, but Isaac’s performance in Show Me a Hero was subtle and rangy and as good as anything else on television this year—except Rylance and Wilson and Dunst. But he’ll win because he’s Oscar Isaac and he was good enough (and because Star Wars and Ex-Machina).