The Golden Globes, aka the Oscars if everyone was drunk and being lectured about atheism by a British guy, kick off at 8pm tonight. In anticipation, we dusted off our crystal balls and did our best to predict who will win. You can find predictions for the film categories from New Republic managing editor Elaine Teng, news editor Alex Shephard, and culture editor Michelle Legro below. Predictions on the television categories are here. You can also follow our coverage of the Golden Globes live on Minutes.
Best Motion Picture, Drama:
- Carol
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
Elaine: Spotlight. Not just because it was a great movie, but because the Golden Globes is run by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and journalists love themselves.
Alex: Mad Max: Fury Road. I mean, look: Spotlight is definitely going to win. But Mad Max is more inventive and as widely-loved—I think it has a puncher’s chance.
Michelle: Carol. Todd Haynes film has been making the rounds on the international circuit for almost a year now, from Berlin, to London, to Cannes, where Rooney Mara won Best Actress, so if there’s a movie that can set the foreign press aflutter, it’s this one.
Best Motion Picture, Comedy:
- The Big Short
- Joy
- The Martian
- Spy
- Trainwreck
Elaine: The Martian. The Big Short has been gaining momentum and might sneak in here, but The Martian, released all the way back in October, is the movie that just won’t go away.
Alex: The Big Short. I had my problems with it, but it’s miles ahead of its competitors, though I do hope that they give it to Joy just to fuck with people.
Michelle: The Big Short. Just the right mix of didactic and humorous, with America punished for it’s financial hubris.
Best Director:
- Todd Haynes, Carol
- Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
Elaine: Todd Haynes. Todd Haynes will win because the directorial craft is more apparent in Carol, but Tom McCarthy isn’t receiving nearly enough credit for making something as boring as sifting through public records and library archives pulsate with suspense.
Alex: Ridley Scott. Scott is the least deserving nominee in a pretty phenomenal pool—Haynes is a perfect classic candidate, Iñárritu and Miller pulled off (nearly every) risk that they took, and McCarthy made what’s close to a perfect film. But I think Scott wins for lifetime achievement—and because he may not make something as good as The Martian again.
Michelle: George Miller. It was perhaps the biggest coup of this year that Mad Max: Fury Road was not merely watchable, but cinematically excellent. For proof, watch this cut of the center-framed visuals in the movie.
Best Actress, Drama:
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Elaine Cate Blanchett. Saoirse Ronan’s subtle performance in Brooklyn wins my heart in this category, but I don’t think she’ll be able to fend off Cate Blanchett’s steely gaze.
Alex: Saoirse Ronan. Ronan also won my heart, but I think she’ll fend off Cate Blanchett’s steely gaze.
Michelle: Saoirse Ronan. Unless they give it to Cate, in which case Saoirse will surely win the Oscar.
Best Actor, Drama:
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
- Will Smith, Concussion
Elaine: Leonardo DiCaprio. Leo may have never won an Oscar, but the Globes certainly love him. He’s been nominated eleven times and has already won twice. And if anyone’s going to love all these stories about him eating raw bison liver, it’s the press.
Alex: Leonardo DiCaprio. This pains me because I saw The Revenant just a few hours ago and found it maddening, but who else could win here? No one saw Trumbo or Steve Jobs (though I could see Cranston winning) and Redmayne and Smith didn’t do enough.
Michelle: Leonardo DiCaprio. Often these awards go to those who did the most acting, but in this case it might go to the most extreme acting. Leo’s going to need an award to get himself through years of physical (and emotional) therapy.
Best Actress, Comedy:
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Melissa McCarthy, Spy
- Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
- Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
- Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Elaine: Jennifer Lawrence. Maybe it’s because they’re the red-headed stepchild of the Oscars, but the Globes tend to go for the biggest stars. Lily Tomlin deserves it more for Grandma, but the HFPA will probably go for J.Law. If only for the ratings.
Alex: Amy Schumer. I feel similarly to Elaine but I walked out of Joy and Maggie Smith is my Lily Tomlin. I think HFPA goes for Amy Schumer, who’s more than deserving, if only for the ratings.
Michelle: I’m a little stumped here, but again I think I’ll go Jennifer Lawrence for most acting in a film with an overabundance of emotions that isn’t Inside Out.
Best Actor, Comedy:
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Steve Carell, The Big Short
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Al Pacino, Danny Collins
- Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
Elaine: Matt Damon. Christian Bale has a shot here if the HFPA decides to go all out for The Big Short, but I think Matt Damon will stave him off.
Alex: Matt Da—hahaha what the hell are Danny Collins and Infinitely Polar Bear?????—mon. The Big Short will be punished for being an ensemble film (hi Spotlight!) and I literally just heard of those other two movies, so Matt Damon wins. Next year this award will go to Robert DeNiro for Dirty Grandpa and it will be known everafter as the Dirty Grandpa Award for Comedy.
Michelle: Matt Damon, or the bear. Not not the Polar bear. The other bear.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Jane Fonda, Youth
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo
- Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Elaine: Alicia Vikander. A deserved award for this year’s It girl. (She was in five movies this year!)
Alex: Jennifer Jason Leigh. I’d like to see Vikander win for a host of reasons, but think Leigh will win. She was fantastic + HFPA <3s Tarantino.
Michelle: Ex Machina was one of my favorites this year and Alicia Vikander was the second best part about it, after Oscar Isaac tears up the fucking dance floor.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Elaine: Mark Rylance. Sylvester Stallone could surprise here, and I think Michael Shannon can never have enough awards, but Rylance was the best part of Steven Spielberg’s Cold War movie.
Alex: Mark Rylance. I loved Dano in Love & Mercy—he was good in every way that John Cusack was bad—but Rylance is phenomenal. I forgot 95 percent of Bridge of Spies immediately after walking out of the theater but have been thinking about his performance for months.
Michelle: Not Mark Rylance because I want him to win for Wolf Hall.
Best Animated Film:
- Anomalisa
- The Good Dinosaur
- Inside Out
- The Peanuts Movie
- Shaun the Sheep Movie
Elaine: Inside Out. This is a lock-in if there ever was one, but a part of me is gunning for Shaun the Sheep.
Alex: Inside Out. I’m still crying. Though that may be from the puppet sex in Anomalisa.
Michelle: I promised myself that I would watch Inside Out after three glasses of red wine on a plane, because that’s where I feel the most feelings. And oh the feels were felt.
Best Foreign Film:
- The Brand New Testament
- The Club
- The Fencer
- Mustang
- Son of Saul
Elaine: Son of Saul. The HFPA tends to go for the biggest name in this category too, and Son of Saul, the Hungarian Holocaust movie, has been sweeping up.
Alex: Mustang. Son of Saul is maybe the closest thing to a lock for an awards ceremony that promises few sure things, but I loved Deniz Gamze Ergüven’s powerful Mustang too much to pick anything else.
Michelle: Mustang. Turkish-French Virgin Suicides gets my vote every time.
Best Screenplay:
- Emma Donoghue, Room
- Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
- Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
- Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Elaine: Spotlight. Room deserves recognition for telling a story of sexual abuse through a child’s perspective without ever feeling exploitative, but Spotlight should win the day.
Alex: The Big Short. It’s peaking at just the right time and it’s in the Goldilocks zone between Spotlight and Tarantino—it’s just clever and flashy enough.
Michelle: Spotlight. The script was everything in this movie. Did you think you were going to Spotlight for the explosions?