Kamala’s Latest Polling Win Is a Devastating Blow to Trump

Kamala Harris has officially pulled ahead of Donald Trump, according to two key national polling averages.

Harris and Trump were neck and neck toward the end of July, with Harris leading by a narrow 0.2 percent on July 28, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Over the course of little more than a week, the gap between Harris and her Republican opponent widened to 1.8 percent, after several recent polls found that she was polling between one and four points ahead of Trump. 

As of Wednesday, the vice president was leading Trump 45.2 percent to 43.3 percent, according to Project 538.  

Real Clear Politics, another poll aggregator, had Harris trailing Trump by 1.8 to 2 percent at the end of July. Over the course of the last week, Harris officially surpassed Trump, leading 47.4 percent to 46.9 percent. 

While that polling average reported a smaller lead for Harris, only 0.5 percent, it represents a major change in momentum for the Democratic Party, which has uniformly trailed Trump over the last six months, according to RCP.  

Several other polls have also found Harris seizing the lead. VoteHub’s national poll aggregation found that Harris was leading by 0.3 percent. A poll The Economist published Tuesday had Harris in the lead, as well, beating the former president 47 percent to 46 percent. An NPR/Marist poll published Tuesday found that Harris had secured a lead, at 51 percent to Trump’s 48 percent. 

Across the board, Harris has seen a significant uptick in positive polling in early August, which should cause Trump some concern.

Last week, the former president claimed he didn’t need to debate Harris because he was “leading in the polls, it seems, by quite a bit, still,” though Harris had already begun to pass him. 

The Georgia State Election Board voted to make it easier for county election officials to delay or refuse certification of election results.

In a 3–2 vote on Tuesday, members voted in favor of a new rule requiring a “reasonable inquiry” before certifying election results. The board did not elaborate, however, on what exactly that inquiry would look like, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

That could spell chaos come November, especially considering that at least 70 election officials across 16 counties in key swing states, including Georgia, have been identified as pro–Donald Trump election denialists.

Trump praised the MAGA members of Georgia’s board days before the vote, describing Janice Johnston, Rick Jeffares, and Janelle King as “pit bulls fighting for victory.”

“I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Georgia State Election Board is in a very positive way,” Trump said at his rally in Atlanta on Saturday. “They’re on fire, they’re doing a great job.”

According to the state election board’s website, the body is “entrusted with a variety of responsibilities and authority to protect all Georgians’ right to cast a ballot.”

Georgia has had the largest number of certification refusals since 2020 of anywhere in the country. The five-person board has been accused of ethics violations—including one instance in which its Trump-friendly majority failed to give proper notice to their Democratic colleagues about a meeting that they used to advance changes to state election rules.

And Republicans are already well into cooking up other strategies to undermine future election results. In May, Fulton County election board official Julie Adams launched a lawsuit seeking a court ruling on whether her duty to certify election results could be considered “discretionary, not ministerial, in nature.”

Meanwhile, the Fulton County election interference case—which intended to deal with Trump and his allies’ election chicanery in the state—has been put on hiatus until after November by the Georgia Court of Appeals as it weighs whether to allow Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to stay on the case.

Willis was allowed to remain on the Georgia RICO case after a judge determined she had not hired special prosecutor Nathan Wade—a man she had a relationship with and who billed her office (and taxpayers) more than $728,000 in legal fees—for personal financial gain.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s personal finances are much different from what one would expect from a politician.

Axios reports that the Democratic vice presidential nominee doesn’t own any stocks, nor does his wife, Gwen. His financial disclosures as a member of Congress from 2007 to 2019 and as governor don’t show him owning bonds, private equities, mutual funds, or other securities. He and Gwen’s only investments appear to be in state pensions, including teacher pensions from their years as educators.

Walz also has never earned money from book sales, because, unlike other elected officials, he has never published a book. He doesn’t have extensive real estate assets, with he and Gwen selling their house in Mankato, Minnesota, for below the $315,000 asking price after he was elected governor. Unlike Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance, he doesn’t own any crypto, and unlike Donald Trump, he doesn’t have his own currency.

These revelations seem to provide another justification for Kamala Harris selecting Walz as her running mate. There are no embarrassing business deals that Walz is hiding, nor real estate scandals, nor tone-deaf remarks about wealth. In fact, Walz has more in common with the average American when it comes to money, and as a congressman, he often showed he could relate to financial struggles.

He even has legislation to back up his words: While serving in the House, Walz introduced the STOCK Act, which was meant to prohibit insider trading by members of Congress and other government employees. The bill was signed into law in 2012 by President Barack Obama. His refusal to own stocks adds to his sterling record for labor and his appeal to heartland voters. The only question is whether all of this can translate to success for Democrats and the Harris ticket in November.

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance has gone on the attack against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s military service—even if he’s not the right guy to be pointing the finger.

“When were you ever in war?” Vance asked rhetorically at a Michigan rally on Wednesday. “What bothers me about Tim Walz is this stolen valor garbage. Do not pretend to be something that you’re not.”

“And if he wants to criticize me for getting an Ivy League education, I’m proud of the fact that my Mawmaw supported me, that I was able to make something of myself—I’d be ashamed if I was him and I lied about my military service like he did,” Vance continued.

“When the U.S. Marine Corps asked me to go to Iraq to serve my country, I did it,” Vance said. “When Tim Walz was asked by his country to go to Iraq, he dropped out of the Army and allowed his unit to go without him.”

Vance has offered veterans another snapshot of executive-level representation since he was selected as Donald Trump’s number two on the Republican ticket. But his service in the Marines wasn’t exactly the boots-on-the-ground experience that he’s now framing it as. Instead, Vance served a single four-year enlistment in the public affairs section in the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, and wrote in his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, that he was “lucky to escape any real fighting.”

Meanwhile, Walz served as an enlisted soldier in the Army National Guard for two decades, ultimately attaining the rank of command sergeant major. He enlisted in the Nebraska National Guard at the age of 17 and transferred to the Minnesota National Guard 15 years later in 1996.

As part of the job, he responded to natural disasters, served with the European Security Force to support the war in Afghanistan, and was stationed around Europe to train with NATO militaries. He received several Army medals and retired as a master sergeant shortly before running for Congress in 2006. Walz has repeatedly said he left the military in order to run for office, not out of cowardice, as Vance implies.

Bringing the military disparity to the foreground of the election is, ultimately, an interesting choice for Vance and Trump, considering that a conveniently timed bone spur diagnosis helped the Republican presidential candidate skirt the Vietnam War draft in 1968.

Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance claimed Wednesday that he had never suggested Kamala Harris hadn’t tapped Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate due to his faith.

During a press conference at a campaign stop in Michigan, a reporter from NBC News asked Vance to clear up some confusion surrounding his assertion that Shapiro had been skipped over for antisemitic reasons.

“You have repeatedly suggested that the only reason Kamala Harris didn’t pick Josh Shapiro to be her running mate was because of his Jewish faith,” the reporter asked. “Do you have any evidence to support that assertion, that a person who is married to a Jewish man is somehow antisemitic, or bowing to antisemites?”

Vance responded with hostility, refusing to answer the question.

“Well, I reject the premise of the question. I did not say that was the only reason that Kamala Harris didn’t choose Josh Shapiro,” Vance replied. “So you should, you know, take a little less DNC talking points when you ask your questions, and ask a real question.”

But just two days earlier, Vance had said precisely the opposite.

“I think that they will have not picked Shapiro, frankly, out of antisemitism in their own caucus and in their own party,” Vance told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday, hours before Harris’s campaign had even announced her pick of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

Vance would continue to trot out this argument over the next 48 hours. On Tuesday, Vance responded to the news of Walz’s pick by claiming that Harris had “listened to the Hamas wing of her party.”

At a rally in Philadelphia later that day, Vance immediately piggybacked off that sentiment and the statements of other Republicans who had begun claiming that Harris hadn’t picked Shapiro because he’s Jewish.

“I genuinely feel bad that for days, maybe even weeks, the guy actually had to run away from his Jewish heritage because of what the Democrats are saying about him. I think that’s scandalous and disgraceful,” Vance said. “Whatever disagreements on policy you have about somebody, the fact that that race, the vice presidential race on the Democratic side, became so focused on his ethnicity, I think is absolutely disgraceful.”

Vance’s weak attempt to walk back his statements on Wednesday fell flat, as it came just hours after Trump proudly repeated the exact same argument the Ohio senator claimed he’d never made.

On Wednesday morning, Trump suggested that Harris had not chosen Shapiro “because of the fact that he’s Jewish, and they think they’re going to offend somebody else.” In the same breath, Trump suggested that Jewish voters not supporting him ought to have their heads examined.

One of the leaders of the conservative manifesto Project 2025, Kevin Roberts, is delaying a book he wrote until after the 2024 election.

“There’s a time for writing, reading, and book tours—and a time to put down the books and go fight like hell to take back our country,” Roberts told RealClearPolitics. “That’s why I’ve chosen to move my book’s publication and promotion to after the election.”

The book, Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America, includes an introduction by Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance and was due to be published in September. The book will now come out on November 12, one week after Election Day.

Vance’s foreword to the book lauds Roberts for criticizing corporations and breaking with the Republican establishment, as well as his strong emphasis on family. Most notably, Vance endorses Roberts’s call for revolution:

As Kevin Roberts writes, “It’s fine to take a laissez-faire approach when you are in the safety of the sunshine. But when the twilight descends and you hear the wolves, you’ve got to circle the wagons and load the muskets.”

We are now all realizing that it’s time to circle the wagons and load the muskets. In the fights that lay [sic] ahead, these ideas are an essential weapon.

It’s highly likely that Roberts is delaying his book due to the negative publicity that Project 2025 has brought to Republicans and the Trump campaign. It contains plans to dismantle abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, labor rights, and numerous other protections. Trump has tried and failed to distance himself from the project, belying his own past support for the manifesto and Vance’s extensive ties to it.

Trump’s frustration with being tied to Project 2025 has led to one of its leaders stepping down from his role, bad blood between Trump’s campaign staff and the project’s operatives, conflict within MAGA world over the former president’s disavowals, and now a delayed book. But the Heritage Foundation’s massive effort means the project won’t go away, no matter how much Trump wants, and if he’s elected, Project 2025’s architects will put its dangerous ideas into practice.

Republican Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance appeared at a Kamala Harris rally in Phila—oh, it wasn’t a Harris rally? Then why on earth did he bring a massive sign that said “KAMALA”?

Donald Trump’s gaffe-prone running mate appeared at his own rally in Philadelphia Tuesday, where he stood in front of a sign that said, “KAMALA CHAOS”—only it didn’t quite read that way.

Vance had invited several people onstage with him to speak about the ways they’d been negatively affected by the Biden administration’s policies, specifically immigration. However, the small crowd that lurked behind Vance covered the word “CHAOS” on the low-hung banner. Vance appeared to stand in front of a giant sign that just read, “KAMALA.”

Across town, Harris and her newly announced running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz held a rally of their own. The campaign reported that 12,000 people had been in attendance, between the arena and the overflow section. Meanwhile, Vance’s rally drew a crowd of “more than 200 supporters” to a venue with a 1,300-person capacity, according to WHYY.

The ironic image quickly circulated online. The International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, or IATSE, posted the image on X (formerly Twitter) Tuesday.

The account captioned the photograph, “Here’s why you should hire union stagehands and stage designers: (They did not).”

IATSE confirmed Wednesday to The New Republic that Vance’s rally was nonunion. As their post went viral, the union took the opportunity to further criticize Trump.

“In 2004, Trump crossed our picket line as workers on ‘The Apprentice’ spoke up to get paid fairly,” IATSE wrote in another post. “He is dangerously anti-worker and anti-union.”

This should sting extra hard for Vance, who was brought in to appeal to white, working-class voters specifically. Earlier Tuesday, several prominent unions and union leaders had expressed their support for Walz, including the AFL-CIO, the American Federation of Teachers, and the United Automobile Workers.

Clearly, union support has tangible benefits. Harris’s rally, which was devoid of similar rigging errors, sported a large sign thanking “local union labor” for setting up the event.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s attempts to paint Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as a progressive bogeyman could morph into instant wins for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.

In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday night, McCarthy described Walz as an ardent leftist, claiming that the governor’s politics were akin to those of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

“This is the most extreme,” McCarthy said. “I served with Tim. We came into Congress together. He’s known for being the Bernie Sanders of Congress.”

Putting aside the fact that Sanders is literally “the Bernie Sanders of Congress,” that comparison could work wonders for Harris’s fresh campaign, which has energized voters across the political spectrum but has yet to show evidence of capturing the progressives.

Harris chose Walz as her running mate on Tuesday, but the selection is still too recent to indicate whether he has moved the needle on her campaign. Still, his addition has piqued the interest of young voters, who have warmly described the 60-year-old as having “peak Midwestern dad vibes.”

It’s been less than three weeks since she announced her bid for the White House, but Harris’s candidacy has already galvanized the electorate. She’s won the support of Black voters, white college-educated women, and independent women voters, all of whom have shown more than 20-point gains in their levels of support since Harris announced her candidacy.

Republicans have suggested that Walz’s involvement could help to rejigger how they approach chipping away at Harris’s momentum, which so far has amounted to elementary-level ad hominem attacks on Harris’s race and identity that have only angered conservative voters.

“This provides the much-needed reset,” Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy told NBC News on Tuesday.

“If this race does come down to policy, I think it should be a hands-down victory—not just for Trump but for candidates all the way down the ballot,” he continued—adding that the possibility is on the table only “if Republicans keep our eye on the ball.”

Unfortunately for Ramaswamy, Trump doesn’t seem all that interested in only discussing policy.

Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance regularly texts infamous far-right troll Charles C. Johnson, a conspiracy theorist and Holocaust denier.

The Washington Post reports that Vance received a text message through the encrypted messaging app Signal from Johnson shortly after being elected to the Senate in 2022, and corresponded with the blogger for 20 months, until just weeks before Donald Trump chose Vance as his running mate.

The texting relationship between Vance and Johnson does not reflect well on the Ohio senator. Vance asked Johnson’s opinion on everything from UFOs to aid to Ukraine to the Republican Party’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Vance even appeared to accept advice from Johnson, including a suggestion that the senator should work to restrict foreign ownership of housing.

Johnson has promoted doubts about the Holocaust, created and promoted fake news stories about various politicians, and associated with neo-Nazis and white nationalists. But in their correspondence, Vance didn’t appear to be worried about that, instead expressing concern that Johnson was collecting information about him.

“If you are who you say you are then don’t you have my phone tapped?” Vance wrote to Johnson last fall, possibly alluding to the fact that Johnson has served as a federal informant in the past.

Ever since Vance was named as Trump’s running mate, many of his unfavorable speeches and stances have come to light, from his views on people without children to his association with the conservative manifesto Project 2025. His polling numbers are underwater, and Republicans think Trump shouldn’t have picked him. These latest revelations aren’t likely to help Vance or the Trump ticket, especially since Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz already has a groundswell of support.

Donald Trump got in on the conservative meltdown over Kamala Harris’s decision to pick Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, claiming that she did so because Shapiro is Jewish.

Trump, who shamelessly cavorted with a neo-Nazi, called in to Fox & Friends Wednesday morning, where he claimed Harris’s decision was “very insulting to Jewish people.”

Trump was asked to respond to a Siena College poll that found Trump leading by 1 percent among likely New York Jewish voters, as well as a remark Tuesday from political strategist Van Jones, who claimed that antisemitism had been “marbled into” the Democratic Party through progressive support for Palestine against Israel’s catastrophic military campaign. Jones had questioned how much of Harris’s decision involved “caving in to some of these darker parts in the party.”

Trump responded by claiming that he was “very close” to winning New York, which was why he was surprised Harris had not opted for Shapiro. (It’s worth noting that the last time a Republican presidential candidate won New York state was 1984.)

“I think that any person who votes for a Democrat—or in this case, these people—but who votes for a Democrat should have their head examined,” Trump said, an old attack he’s used repeatedly over the last six months against any Jewish person who has refused to support his presidential bid.

“They are so bad, if you look, they are so bad to Jewish people. What they’ve done, and the way they talk, and their policy and everything else,” Trump said.

Trump claimed that Harris had not chosen Shapiro “because of the fact that he’s Jewish, and they think they’re going to offend somebody else.” He didn’t deign to say whom.

“And you wouldn’t feel very comfortable if you were in Israel right now with this team. This is the worst team ever assembled for a Jewish person or for Israel, either one. The worst team ever assembled. This is a team that will not be there,” he said.

Trump has continued to trot out the same tired lines about how Jewish people should vote in the presidential upcoming election. Trump has previously suggested that any Jewish person who did not vote for him “does not love Israel” and “should be spoken to.” He claimed in March that “any Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion.”

Trump and his fellow Republicans have been desperate to blame antisemitism for Harris’s apparent snub of Shapiro. But when Trump dined with Nick Fuentes, a noted antisemite, conservatives were eerily silent.