New Poll From Conservative Group Spells Disaster for Trump

New polling data out Thursday shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck and neck in several key swing states.

Surveys conducted by conservative market researcher Public Opinion Strategies for the Competitiveness Coalition showed Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 45 percent) and Wisconsin (48–46). The two are also tied 45–45 in the battleground state of Michigan.

Meanwhile, Trump squeezed ahead of Harris in Nevada and Arizona by one percentage point and three percentage points, respectively. The survey was conducted between July 23 and 29. Pollsters spoke to 400 people in each battleground state, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percent.

Despite 57 percent of those polled saying they disapprove of the job Joe Biden has done as president, a number still said Harris would have their vote. Across the five states, Trump and Harris tied perfectly, each with 46 percent of the vote.

Voters chose inflation, border security, and threats to American democracy out of a list of options as their key issues, with abortion following close behind.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters published Tuesday showed Harris with a larger lead in Michigan, beating Trump by 11 percentage points. In Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, she held a two percentage point advantage.

Political polling is not always the best indicator of public opinion, as polls tend to eliminate nuance or only capture opinions from the most politically active people. But the new data is still significant considering how far Biden was trailing behind Trump in the final days of his campaign.

Donald Trump doesn’t seem the least bit happy about the release of three American citizens who were wrongfully imprisoned in Russia. Why? Probably because he had nothing to do with it.

The White House announced Thursday that “three American citizens and one American green-card holder who were unjustly imprisoned in Russia are finally coming home: Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva, and Vladimir Kara-Murza.”

In total, the exchange freed 16 people imprisoned in Russia, including five Germans and seven Russian citizens who had been political prisoners in their own country. The U.S. worked alongside Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, and Turkey to secure the deal, according to the statement.

The Wall Street Journal, where Gershkovich works, has dubbed it “the largest and most complex East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War.” But rather than celebrate, Trump took to Truth Social Thursday to whine that he was not on the inside of brokering the gargantuan deal.

“So when are they going to release the details of the prisoner swap with Russia?” Trump wrote—the first of his many questions.

“How many people do we get versus them? Are we also paying them cash? Are they giving us cash (Please withdraw that question, because I’m sure the answer is NO)? Are we releasing murderers, killers, or thugs?”

“Just curious because we never make good deals, at anything, but especially hostage swaps. Our ‘negotiators’ are always an embarrassment to us! I got back many hostages, and gave the opposing Country NOTHING—and never any cash. To do so is bad precedent for the future. That’s the way it should be, or this situation will get worse and worse. They are extorting the United States of America. They’re calling the trade ‘complex’—That’s so nobody can figure out how bad it is,” Trump wrote.

Trump’s anti-diplomacy pearl-clutching is not only inane, it is also hypocritical. His own administration facilitated several prisoner swaps during his time in office.

In 2019, the Trump administration oversaw the release of three senior Taliban leaders imprisoned in Afghanistan, in exchange for one American, Kevin King, and Timothy Weeks, an Australian. One month later, the U.S. freed Masoud Soleimani, an Iranian scientist convicted of export violations, in exchange for the return of Xiyue Wang, a Princeton graduate student held in Iran.

In October 2020, one of Trump’s deputy assistants agreed to free 250 Houthi rebels being held in Oman, in exchange for two Americans, Sandra Loli and Mikael Gidada, who were held hostage by Iranian-backed militants in Yemen.

Two years later, Trump lied, bragging that, while in office, he’d secured the release of 58 hostages without giving anything in return.

It’s entirely likely that Trump is suffering from some kind of diplomatic FOMO. At CNN’s infamous presidential debate in June, Trump promised that he would free Gershkovich before he even took office.

“As soon as I win the election, I will have that reporter out,” he said, not referring to Gershkovich by name, instead calling him a “good guy.”

Trump alleged that Russian President Vladimir Putin had demanded “billions of dollars” for Gershkovich’s release but failed to produce any evidence to support that claim. Rather, Putin has repeatedly indicated that he wanted one person in particular: Vadim Krasikov, a former intelligence officer who had shot a rebel leader in Berlin in 2019.

Despite the fact that Trump never got the chance to follow through on his flimsy promise, that hasn’t stopped his sycophants from tossing him some credit anyway.

After President Joe Biden on Thursday announced a deal to free American hostages in Russia, J.D. Vance somehow tried to give Donald Trump the credit.

Vance’s initial reaction to the news began normally, in an interview with CNN’s Steve Contorno.

“Look, I think it’s great news, at least what little we know. We certainly want these Americans to come back home. It was ridiculous that they were in prison to begin with,” the Republican vice presidential nominee said, before going in a completely different direction.

“But we have to ask ourselves, why are they coming home? And I think it’s because bad guys all over the world recognize Donald Trump’s about to be back in office, so they’re cleaning house,” Vance said. “That’s a good thing. And I think it’s a testament to Donald Trump’s strength.”

The Ohio senator isn’t making any sense here. He appears to be echoing Trump’s comments from May that only he could free Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, claiming that “Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!”

But this was easily disproved Thursday after the release of the hostages, who also included Marine veteran Paul Whelan and Russian American radio journalist Alsu Kurmasheva. National security adviser Jake Sullivan was asked about Vance’s claim at a press conference Thursday, and he dismissed the idea.

“I don’t follow,” Sullivan replied.

The super PAC with the highest amount of money raised is likely one you’ve never heard of: “Fairshake PAC.”

According to their website, the group “supports candidates committed to securing the United States as the home to innovators building the next generation of the internet.” In simpler terms, they are an “independent” cryptocurrency and blockchain industry group. According to OpenSecrets, they’ve raised $202,939,294 to influence upcoming elections.

The PAC has spent only a handful of millions so far, almost entirely attacking progressive Democratic candidates. That includes an ad attack against Representative Katie Porter’s California Democratic primary back in February. The group has also spent $2 million to push out progressive New York Representative Jamaal Bowman and $1 million against fellow Squad member Cori Bush’s upcoming primary in Missouri.

Given the PAC’s spending (or lack thereof, relative to how much money it has), it’s no wonder that both major presidential candidates have begun to vie for the cryptocurrency industry’s favor. On July 27, Donald Trump spoke at the national Bitcoin conference.

“You’re going to be very happy with me,” he said as he addressed the conference in Nashville, Tennessee. In his speech, the Republican presidential nominee promised to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet.”

At the same time, Kamala Harris reached out to the blockchain world, reportedly having aides meet with industry officials to “reset” relations and strengthen the Democratic Party’s ties with cryptocurrency business interests. Harris is not likely to sway big donors and PACs such as Fairshake, however.

Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini and the venture capitalist firm Winklevoss Capital, already seems to have come out against her.

“Beware of the Big Bluff,” he wrote on X, speaking about Harris’s attempts to win over the industry.

The millions of dollars raised by Fairshake PAC come from Winklevoss and his twin brother Tyler, Coinbase, Ripple, and “techno-optimist” Marc Andreessen. This venture capitalist world has increasingly rallied around Trump following his pick of J.D. Vance for vice president, given Vance’s background in Silicon Valley and relationships with billionaires such as Peter Thiel.

As cryptocurrency researcher Molly White reported, Coinbase is alleged to have skirted campaign finance laws through its donations to Fairshake. If this is the case, this would be the “largest known illegal campaign contribution by a federal contractor,” according to White.

During the 2022 midterms, the crypto industry, led by Sam Bankman-Fried, had an outsize influence through massive campaign spending. At the time, Bankman-Fried spent millions collaborating with AIPAC and Trump to support billionaires and crush the electoral left in Democratic primaries.

As Bankman-Fried sits in prison, Fairshake PAC seems to be willing to take up the mantle in 2024.

J.D. Vance once compared abortion to slavery while gushing about the demise of Roe v. Wade, in new audio unearthed by Media Matters.

Less than two weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court decided to undo the 1973 decision that decriminalized abortion, Vance appeared in an episode of The Bruce Hooley Show, hosted by the eponymous right-wing radio host.

During the conversation, Hooley cited the 1954 Supreme Court decision in Brown v. Board of Education, which found that “separate but equal” segregation was unconstitutional, although it had previously been allowed by Plessy v. Ferguson in 1896.

“I don’t think they wanna be in the business of advocating that anything that’s been in law for 50 years remains in law forever,” Hooley said.

Vance agreed, and took it another step further.

“Yeah. Of course. You know, Dred Scott, one of the famous pro-slavery decisions by the Supreme Court, I don’t think anybody wants that to remain law,” Vance said, referring to the 1857 case Dred Scott v. Sandford, which found that enslaved Black people were not American citizens and therefore not protected by the Constitution.

“So, I do think that we look at these decisions very often and we say, look, these things just don’t make any sense anymore. They haven’t held up very well. They haven’t solved the problem they were meant to solve. They don’t comport with the Constitution, obviously. That’s the most important thing that very few people talk about.”

“So, yeah, this is ultimately—this is a good thing,” said Vance, referring to Roe’s fall.

Media Matters found that this wasn’t the first time that Vance made that comparison.

In 2021, Vance had told The Catholic Current, an anti-abortion radio show, that “there’s something comparable between abortion and slavery, and that while the people who obviously suffer the most are those subjected to it, I think it has this morally distorting effect on the entire society.”

Vance’s harsh view on abortion is a particularly bad look for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, which has attempted to present a more moderate approach on abortion in an attempt to capture a wider breadth of voters. The change in tone has inspired a huge shift in the Republican Party’s platform away from a federal abortion ban (and toward embracing the dozens of cruel state-level ones).

Vance previously advocated for a nationwide abortion ban, and called for a “federal response” to block women traveling out of state to get abortions.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was warned by doctors and mental health professionals about Donald Trump’s mental health in 2019, according to her upcoming book.

The Guardian obtained an advance copy of Pelosi’s book The Art of Power: My Story as America’s First Woman Speaker of the House, which will be released next week. In the book, Pelosi recounted what she was told by several “doctors and other mental health professionals” at a memorial service for a psychiatrist.

They told her that they were “deeply concerned that there was something seriously wrong” with Trump, “and that his mental and psychological health was in decline.”

“I’m not a doctor,” Pelosi wrote, “but I did find his behaviors difficult to understand.”

The 2019 memorial was a service for Dr. David Hamburg, whom Pelosi refers to as “a distinguished psychiatrist who … served as the president of the Carnegie Corporation, where he had been a great voice for international peace.”

Pelosi elaborated further on her opinions of Trump’s mental health.

Before the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021, “I knew Donald Trump’s mental imbalance. I had seen it up close. His denial and then delays when the Covid pandemic struck, his penchant for repeatedly stomping out of meetings, his foul mouth, his pounding on tables, his temper tantrums, his disrespect for our nation’s patriots, and his total separation from reality and actual events. His repeated, ridiculous insistence that he was the greatest of all time,” Pelosi wrote.

Pelosi also described how Trump’s staff members, such as Mark Meadows, Trump’s final chief of staff, allowed Trump to listen in “surreptitiously” on private meetings with congressional leaders, causing Pelosi to ban cell phones from her meeting rooms on Capitol Hill.

She also wrote about Trump calling her on the phone, sometimes late at night, including one call where Trump told her that missile strikes he had just ordered against Syria were his predecessor Barack Obama’s fault. Pelosi told him “It’s midnight. I think you should go to sleep.”

On January 6, Pelosi said she was calm because she was “already deeply aware of how dangerous Donald Trump was.”

She wrote that she realized that she had “more respect for the office of president of the United States than Trump. “It was clear to me from the start that he was an imposter—and that on some level, he knew it.”

Pelosi’s remarks show that Trump’s ongoing cognitive decline isn’t something new and, in fact, was noticed by those around him years ago. In recent months, he’s confused members of Congress, fumbled during speeches, gone on incomprehensible rants, and made enough gaffes for critics to make brutal supercuts. Pelosi’s new revelations show just how much his mental state may have put the country in danger when he was president—and serve as a warning that another presidential term would likely be worse.

In a Truth Social post Thursday morning, Donald Trump appeared to suggest, again, that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris isn’t really Black, ramping up his identity-based attacks to the horror of those in his party who consider racism a losing electoral strategy.

Earlier in the week, many GOP strategists, including in the Trump camp, worried that attacks on Harris’s race and gender—which seemed all but inevitable considering Trump’s history of racism and misogyny—would pose a serious liability for the campaign. “We hope he doesn’t act like a crazy racist and sexist person, but we can’t control him,” a source close to the campaign told The Washington Post.

These hopes were quickly dashed in the course of Trump’s interview with the National Association of Black Journalists Wednesday afternoon, in which the candidate claimed that, for years, Vice President Kamala Harris “was Indian all the way, and then suddenly she made a turn and she became a Black person.”

Politifact noted this was a “false mischaracterization of Harris’ background and how she has spoken about, and identified with, her race and ethnicity.” Harris, whose mother is Indian and father is Black, has “embraced her Black identity and multicultural background in several ways.”

By Wednesday evening, many Republicans were dismayed. One House Republican told Axios the interview “was not a demonstration on how to win over undecided voters,” and another said it “raised concerns about whether Trump can contain his impulses.”

But Trump dug in his heels again on Truth Social Thursday morning, posting a family photo in which a young Kamala Harris wore a sari, with the snide caption, “Thank you Kamala for the nice picture you sent from many years ago! Your warmth, friendship, and love of your Indian heritage are very much appreciated.”

Commenting on Trump’s obstinate commitment to mocking Harris’s biracial background, political analyst and X user ettingermentum wrote, “How does he even theoretically see this helping him,” and commentator Tim Miller sarcastically posted, “Gotta say I am extremely impressed with the strategic discipline that [Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita] has brought to this campaign. I doubted the punditry that indicated Trump could be tamed … but the proof is in the pudding.”

A former Trump aide has accused Donald Trump of falsely identifying as Swedish, following his outlandish claim that Vice President Kamala Harris “happened to turn Black” despite being “always of Indian heritage.”

Omarosa Manigault Newman called out Trump during an appearance on CNN’s Laura Coates Live Wednesday night, saying that she distinctly remembered him identifying as Swedish, “because he didn’t want to acknowledge that his father was German and his mother was Irish, and he thought that that would play better to those who were patronizing his businesses.”

“So can we call the question, his past of self-identifying as first Swedish, then German, and then Irish whenever it’s convenient?”

“Donald doesn’t know the difference between ancestry and race. He doesn’t want to know the differences, nor does he understand the nuances of how people self-identify. And so, I believe that that’s disqualifying for him,” Newman said.

Trump’s grandfather, Frederich, came to New York City from Kallstadt, Germany, according to The Daily Beast. Trump’s father then lied about having Swedish heritage, so that he could more easily sell apartments to Jewish tenants in the aftermath of World War II, according to The Boston Globe.

That lie made its way into Trump’s 1987 bestselling book, The Art of the Deal, where he wrote that his grandfather “came here from Sweden as a child.” It was only when the Trump family received a request from a Swedish organization to put up an exhibit about the family in one of their museums, that it was time to give up the charade. When Trump wrote his next book 13 years later, it correctly identified that his grandfather had come from Germany.

While Newman identified Trump’s mother as Irish, she was Scottish by birth.

As many other Republicans criticized Donald Trump for questioning Vice President Kamala Harris’s race on Wednesday, Senator Tom Cotton took a different tack and defended the former president and convicted felon.

On CNN Wednesday, Kaitlan Collins asked the Arkansas senator if Trump’s comments were defensible, and he said yes.

“Kaitlan, of course,” Cotton said. “First off, it’s refreshing to see a presidential candidate who’s willing to go in front of the media, something that Donald Trump knew would be a tough interview. It turned out to be a hostile, adversarial interview, but he’s been doing that for nine years. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has been hiding out for the 10 days that she’s been a president nominee.”

Cotton attacked Harris as a “San Francisco liberal,” saying she had not granted any interviews since President Biden stepped down from the 2024 election and endorsed her for president.

“Yeah, I didn’t hear Donald Trump bring up any of her policy positions today or stances when he was on that stage,” Collins followed up. “But your argument is that just because she hasn’t done an interview since she became the top of the ticket, that it’s OK to question what her race is?”

Cotton denied Collins’s assertion.

“Kaitlan, if you didn’t hear Donald Trump talking about her positions and his record, then you didn’t watch the interview. It went on for 30 minutes,” Cotton said.

“The vast majority of it, Kaitlan, was Donald Trump talking about his record, contrasting it to the Biden-Harris record of higher inflation and wide-open borders and war and chaos around the world,” Cotton added.

Throughout the interview, Collins tried to press Cotton to address Trump’s comments, but the Arkansas senator continued to deflect.

“We have talked about her past positions and the reversals of those,” Collins said. “And we’ve delved into all of that. That’s actually what voters care about. But when your party’s nominee is on stage telling a panel of three Black women that the first Black woman to serve as vice president hasn’t always identified as Black, how does that help your party win elections?”

“Donald Trump said that what matters is that she identifies as a dangerous San Francisco liberal. It’s not what race she identifies as,” Cotton replied.

It’s not surprising that Cotton would be one of the few senators to publicly jump to Trump’s defense, considering his own record on race. In 2020, he called for invoking the Insurrection Act and sending in federal troops to crush Black Lives Matter demonstrations. That same year, he claimed that America’s Founding Fathers saw slavery as a “necessary evil upon which the union was built.”

But Cotton is out of step with many of his Republican colleagues, and if he and the rest of the GOP who are defending Trump’s remarks think that the former president will emerge unscathed, they are in for a reckoning, especially considering Trump already has minuscule Black support.

As reports emerge suggesting some Trump allies regret Republican vice presidential pick J.D. Vance, who has made an abysmal first impression in the public eye, many in the campaign suspect former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway of maligning Vance to the media.

The Bulwark reports that over a dozen “​​Trump campaign staffers, allies, confidants, and advisers” said, without being prompted, that they thought Conway “was undermining him through leaks to the press expressing doubts about his readiness and the campaign’s vetting.”

“He’s pissed off about it. He knows it’s her,” a source close to Donald Trump Jr. told the center-right news site.

Conway was rumored to be a “serial leaker” during Trump’s presidency, and, as his “veepstakes” were underway, she opposed Vance. The New York Times reports that, as the Ohio senator emerged as the favorite, Conway “argued privately” for “other options,” like Marco Rubio.

Maintaining her loyalty and close relationship to the former president, Conway called her accusers “gossip girls” and “ankle biters,” telling The Bulwark that she did favor Rubio but is “not anti-Vance.” A member of the Trump family reportedly said, “The family in general thinks very highly” of her.

When the Republican “veepstakes” were still underway, Conway told CNN that Trump should choose somebody who would not be “a distraction or subtraction,” saying he “should not be made to explain other people’s scandals or statements.” Whatever their thoughts of Conway, such advice is surely ringing in the ears of Trump and his allies as they are having to do just that.