A plugged-in source points me to Goldman's latest economic forecast, which anticipates -7% GDP growth this quarter and -3% GDP growth next quarter, down from an earlier forecast of -4.5% and -1%, respectively. What's remarkable about the change, though, is that the new numbers factor in the stimulus, whose effects Goldman thinks will be significant (and positive), whereas the old forecast didn't. And yet they still have the economy contracting by much more than previously thought. Kind of gives you an idea of what we're up against...
For what it's worth, they do see us back in positive territory by the summer.
--Noam Scheiber