Per yesterday's post about the structural advantages Obama has heading into this fall's election, consider this from yesterday's WaPo:
With most Americans blaming President Bush for their troubles, McCain faced an uphill climb even before his campaign's recent miscues. Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis-based economic forecasting firm, will release a report next week that factors in such variables as the growth rate of real disposable income, unemployment rate, real oil price increases, the power of the incumbent party as well as the impact of party fatigue to forecast the outcome of the election. The result projects a victory of more than 10 percentage points for presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama, said Chris P. Varvares, the firm's president.
Again, it's by no means over. And Obama always runs behind the generic analysis. Still, it's important to keep the strength of this tailwind in mind when considering what will and won't potentially cost Obama the election.
--Noam Scheiber