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My Guesstimate: Clinton Wins Indiana

As of 12:25 AM, 28% of Lake County is in, all from Gary, and Barack Obama has picked up about 20,000 votes, needing another 20,000 or so to catch Hillary Clinton. The networks don't know how much, if any, of the Gary vote remains to report. But the Census Bureau says Lake County has 494,000 residents,and Gary has 99,000. So 28% of the Lake County vote is in, and Gary accounts for about 20% of the county population. Ergo, there's little or no more vote from Gary. Ergo, there's little chance Obama can win Indiana. (The nomination, of course, is another story.)

--Jonathan Chait