As the political world's focus shifts to the second presidential debate
in Nashville, Barack Obama continues to expand his lead upon John
McCain in all of our projection metrics, and now rates as almost a 9:1
favorte to win the election in November.
Both state and national polls are contributing to this result. Obama remains at his strongest-ever levels in the Rasmussen and Gallup
tracking polls, leading McCain by 8 and 9 points, respectively.
Although some of the other tracking polls -- like Diageo/Hotline and
the brand new Reuters/Zogby poll
-- show tighter race the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the
largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in the model.
Obama also gets a monster number from SurveyUSA
in Pennsylvania, which has him leading by 15 points, up from a 6-point
lead two weeks ago. SurveyUSA polls can be a bit volatile, but with
that said, we now have multiple polls (Quinnipiac, Morning Call, West
Chester/NPR) suggesting that Obama has a double-digit lead in
Pennsylvania. We also show Pennsylvania moving back ahead of Michigan,
projecting an 8.7-point win for Obama there as opposed to 8.4 points in
the Wolverine State. The good news for McCain is that Pennsylvania is
one of those states with absolutely no form of early voting, so while
he's got a lot of ground to make up, he wouldn't be penalized for doing
so late.
The set of CNN polling
also contains good news for Obama, though CNN polls -- which have had a
Democratic lean this cycle -- usually do. New Hampshire is another
place where Obama's numbers have improved recently; when coupled with
his newfound strength in Pennsylvania, our model now assigns Obama a 69
percent chance to hold onto all of John Kerry's blue states from 2004.
McCain
needs a game changer. Or two. Or three. Tonight's debate, which
features McCain's preferred town hall format, might be his best
remaining opportunity.
Polling follows.
--Nate Silver